A ‘Much Too Early’ Prediction …

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Truthfully, CV-19 quarantining isn’t that much different than early retirement life.  Sure, you can’t go out to eat with friends, weekly sports leagues and activities are cancelled, and the TV news is hideous to watch, but we can still get out and take walks, work on projects at home, and other daily diversions.

Life is only boring if you are boring!

Like many Americans, I’ve been watching a lot of TV news and the daily press briefings from the White House.  I’m hopeful that the financial markets have turned the corner this week and am pleased with the progress we are making in inevitably stopping the CV-19 virus.  I think the financial markets seem to have bottomed-out at this point and I’ve optimistically predicted to several friends that “the next bull market has begun”.

In a one sign of positivity, corporate executives are suddenly buying up stock at a rate not seen since the 2009 recovery.  I think that is a very good sign … or at least evidence that I’m not the only one who is delusional about the economy’s prospects at this point.

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Of course, the market could crash again if any degree of bad news creeps in.  The state of the world’s economy is pretty iffy right now, so it would be a bad time for anything else to happen.  Even a slightest jolt of unexpected bad news might cause another ugly dip.

I’m shocked by the amount of financial stimulus that the Federal Government is putting into the economy right now.  I’m not sure where all of the money is going to come from, but I think it will be much more costly if the economy is allowed to melt down.

I was surprised to learn that we are due for one of the $2,400 ‘Trump Bucks’ stimulus checks.  The ‘means test’ is based on 2018 AGI, which was a  year when we lived off of savings and didn’t cash in any investments.  I believe that 2018 might have been the only year in at least the last couple decades in which we would have qualified for it!

Do you think the market has bottomed out, or are we just seeing a ‘dead cat bounce’ and the market will fall below it’s lows of last week?

Image Credit: Pixabay

 

10 thoughts on “A ‘Much Too Early’ Prediction …

  1. Well, Chief, one guess is as good as another. Mine is freely offered, so it’s worth exactly what you paid for it: I don’t think we’ve yet bottomed out – but we may not be far from it, and it may not take long to get there. In the meantime, everything is twitchy, based on the tweets of the moment. I don’t do Twitter. I’ve scrupulously avoided TV “news.” That’s done wonders for my blood pressure. My advisor says: “Don’t touch anything. Fools rush in and out. We’re very widely diversified with long-term investments. On the other side of this turbulence are blue skies and fair winds.” I’m with him. Literally.

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    1. We’re on the sidelines too, but the strategist in me does enjoy analyzing the situation day-by-day. I find it more interesting than blood pressure boosting (so far). I thought we’d get another bump today, but instead we got another bad day. Oh well. We’re still about 15% above last week’s bottom, so I’m hoping for more of those blue skies & fair winds soon.

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    1. Our neighbor girls were drawing American flags in chalk on their driveways today. Reminded me of the hopeful messages you saw kids draw in your neighborhood. 🇺🇸👍🏻

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  2. I’m not so hopeful about how the US is reacting to this dangerous virus as you are. You guys seem to be quite unprepared and on top of that, unwilling, to fight this thing.

    It seems like for every 1 case that has had enough symptoms to be tested in Europe, there must be at least 5 more cases who don’t have enough symptoms to get tested. And so before the lockdown, these 5 “healthy” people were spreading this virus all througout Europe. Now with the lockdown, that reduces the “asymptomatic spread” a bit. The same spread of the disease has happened in the US and is still happening.

    But in the US, those numbers could easily be 1 tested case to 10 untested/unknown cases, as more Americans will avoid being tested due to not having health insurance nor can they take the time off work. They’ll keep working and hope that they’ll just have a cold.

    So you’ll have much more people spreading this virus actively by being out and about. Add to that the fact that a lot of the old folks who *will* get ill won’t be insured well enough to go to the hospital fast, and the mortality in the US could also easily be much higher than in countries with a nationwide functioning healthcare system.

    So I’m not optimistic at all for you guys.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. We need to be serious about it and most states in the US (and every metro area) are locked down with ‘shelter in place’ orders, including mine. We’re a big country and getting deep in it, but we will get through it. We did a good job shutting our borders quickly. Testing started slow, do to government failures. We are now testing over 100K people/day now that we’ve turned it over to private healthcare.

      No one pays for CV-19 testing and our poorest 70M and oldest 45M are covered by public health insurance, Medicaid & Medicare. You have to remember when you see news media from the US it is very sensationalized and there is a definite anti-Administration bias.

      How are things going for you in the NL? It’s been 26 days since our first fatality (versus 20 for you). At this point, we have seen 6 deaths per million, where the Netherlands is at an incredible 37. That’s a 6-fold difference, so I wonder what is happening there to cause so much impact? I’m guessing a lot of people came through NL through Shiphol. Our fatality rate is more like Germany at this point.

      https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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  3. We are an amazing country. Failure is not an option. The U.S. will overcome this virus like every other issue that we’ve faced as a nation. Go ahead and doubt us, but we will persevere. Stronger than before…

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