Betting The Presidency

The old saying goes “put your money where your mouth is” and I have a friend who has been betting his political analysis/opinions on the interesting website ‘PredictIt’ this week. As you can imagine, he’s had a wild week!

While I made a few friendly wagers (a bottle of wine or 6-pack of beer) with some buddies on the outcome, my friend put major $$$ on Joe Biden winning the Presidency. He invested over $500 on the website about a month ago, getting ‘Biden to Win’ for about $0.62 a share (pays $1 on a win).

At one point on Tuesday night, things were pretty stressful for him as we were texting about the early returns. By Wednesday morning, things had swung his way … and it now looks like he will walk away with a few hundred dollars in profit.

He believes there is a good deal of ‘emotional arbitrage’ in these online political markets that can be exploited in our ‘divided nation’. Shares in a ‘Biden Win’ were trading for $0.62 – far less than the ‘objective’ polling forecast (91%) on FiveThirtyEight.

It might be a rationalization, but he doesn’t view it as ‘gambling’. At least no more than betting on sports or the stock market. All of them have a significant risk beta.

Anyone else try online political prediction sites? Interested?

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4 thoughts on “Betting The Presidency

  1. Hey there. I made a wager of $5000 on a Biden win, even though I’m not American. It had a payback of $1.35 per $1. It was a bit of a nail biter at the beginning!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Good for you! My friend was seriously stressed when Trump won Florida and came from behind in Ohio. Quite a swing on Election night!


    1. She looks like she was the difference maker in many of these close states, doesn’t she? Glad for it. If the big parties won’t support small government and less foreign entanglements, screw’em! 😉


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