I was surprised as anyone to see the stock market erase its 2020 losses last week in a remarkable reversal of the COVID-19 doldrums. Certainly the trillions in Federal stimulus spending and ‘loose money’ from the Federal Reserve has a lot to do with it. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chief, Neel Kashkari – who had been involved in the 2008 TARP program and Fed initiatives during … Continue reading Stock Market Derisked?
Normally at this point of the year I provide an update on how our retirement portfolio is doing against the investment plan we laid out before early retirement. It takes a little time to crunch all the numbers and with the historically horrific headlines we’ve had this year, it might have been easy to just skip the update until later this year. Still, with the … Continue reading Unexpected Returns – Portfolio Update
Back on March 27th, I made the playful ‘Much To Early Prediction’ to friends (and in this POST) that the pandemic market crash had bottomed out. The DJIA had fallen to 18,214 on the afternoon of March 23rd. This was long before the worst of the pandemic had hit the US or the world yet, but so far the optimistic outlook has paid off as … Continue reading Is The Pandemic Bear Sleeping?
With global governments printing trillions of dollars, Euros, Yuan, and Yen to keep economies from going illiquid, I thought now would be a good time to check on Bitcoin. Longtime readers will recall I took a ‘hobby stake’ in Bitcoin back in early 2017 to test my thesis that cryptocurrencies have a role as a more reliable ’store of value’ than government-managed currencies. I have … Continue reading Bitcoin Amid CV19
It was good advice. I had it written in a cell at the bottom of the first budget spreadsheet I put together thirty years ago: “Keep 3-6 months spending in an emergency fund. More if you smell layoffs coming.” We had just gotten married, we were watching every penny, and we viewed it as an important first step. We took the emergency fund principle from … Continue reading Locked Up
As expected, the financial markets are having a very crazy week. Starting Monday, with a shocking -3,000 point DJIA drop (-13%), the week was filled with volatility. It wasn’t the environment I expected to find any opportunity in, but on St Patrick’s Day (Tuesday), I think I found the ‘Luck of the Irish’. Longtime readers have heard my woeful tale of crashed MegaCorp stock options … Continue reading Lucky Inflection Point?
Lots of mayhem on Wall Street right now with the media focusing only on the coronavirus. I’ve had a couple people ask me about it, so I thought I would shoot out my thoughts today. I think the coronavirus does represent a significant short-term financial risk while businesses and government work to control the impact of it on global corporate supply chains. At the same … Continue reading Market Valuation – Where Are We Now?
Consumer confidence is a big part of the economy’s ongoing performance. If people believe that things are going well, they are more likely to go well. It’s not a perfect correlation, of course, but it is better than the opposite. With that in mind, I was encouraged to see the latest numbers from Gallup on how Americans are feeling right now. They polled people on … Continue reading Americans Feeling Positive About Their Financial Positions
One thing I paid zero attention to at the end of 2019 – when I had my heart attack – was how great the financial markets finished the year. Thank goodness the markets weren’t collapsing the way that they had at the end of 2018, or maybe I would have had a double heart attack! Now that I’m back home and recovering, I thought I … Continue reading Great Markets In 2019
The S&P 500 is up a whopping +24.4% so far in 2019 and many investors are feeling giddy. Despite tariffs, politics, and slow growth in Asia & EU, the American economy continues to chug along. Hooray for growth! It’s not hard to forget that people were quite pessimistic coming into the year. Goldman Sachs had predicted markets to only be up “modestly” in 2019, with … Continue reading Financial Markets Check-In