With tomorrow being Election Day, what’s your likely exposure to a new administration in Washington DC in January?
I know we all have our favorites and we are often breathlessly told that “it is the most important election of our lifetimes!” Still, I’m struggling to think how my wife & I will be directly impacted by any of the changes that have been discussed.
Please tell me if I’m wrong or missing something. We’re a late-50s couple living comfortable in the suburbs. I went through a list of 22 policy areas and couldn’t really come up with anything that would impact us in any major way. I guess we are lucky. Here they are …
TAXATION – If either Presidential candidate wins, I don’t see much impact on us financially. Trump promises a continuation of the Tax Cut & Jobs Act, which is certainly good. That said, Harris says she’ll keep TCJA in place for households under $400K in income and we can manage our income under that level very easily. Harris would also reinstate the SALT deduction – which would help us in high-tax Minnesota.
SOCIAL SECURITY – Trump promises to not tax Social Security, but we are more than 4 years away from getting SSI. It would help my Mom, but no impact for us, other than setting us up for the future. I don’t think our lifestyle will be different 10 years from now if it happens or not.
INFLATION – I learned over the last 4 years that inflation is a lot less of a risk to our portfolio than I would have thought when I retired. Even with inflation hitting a 4-decade high, we stayed ahead of it. I think it’s the folks that don’t have much invested – young people and poor people – that pay most of the inflation penalty.
Will Trump’s tariffs drive inflation? Probably, but I’m guessing our portfolio won’t be as impacted as some as they could help bonds as people flee for safety.
INTEREST RATES – No impact. We don’t have any debt of any kind and our portfolio is well-balanced.
NATIONAL DEBT – Both parties have a terrible record of spending us more into debt. Higher interest rates have exacerbated the problem. I expect the status quo from both candidates over the next 4 years, so no added impact.
CURRENCY – The US dollar continues to be the global standard. As bad as our fiscal policy has been, other countries have been worse.
CRIME – No impact to us. Our primary home & vacation place are both in low crime, well-policed areas.
IMMIGRATION – No impact to us. I don’t like to see border crossings, but legal or illegal, migrants help the US economy over the long term.
WELFARE – No impact to us. Costs will be covered under their tax plans, or end up adding to the national debt. (See: National Debt).
EDUCATION – No impact to us. Our son graduated from college more than 4 years ago. No loans.
ABORTION – No impact to us. I’m a 58 year old guy who had a vasectomy 25+ years ago. 🙃
HEALTHCARE – With gridlock in the legislature, there won’t be any healthcare reform. I haven’t heard any discussion of changes to Medicare, which is slowly going broke. Eventually, it will have to be dealt with and it will require both parties to participate.
LGBTQ / WOMEN’S SPORTS – Happy they can get married and have the same rights as others. I don’t follow women’s sports much, but the games need to be fair. No impact to us.
GUN CONTROL – No impact to us. We’ve never been gun people, although I support their rights.
ENVIRONMENT – I don’t know of any planned policies that impact us. We live in areas that have good air, soil & water.
TRANSPORTATION – I drive a gas-powered car. I can afford more expensive gas. I don’t see that changing regardless who is President.
ENERGY – I might buy an EV in the next 4 years. That would happen regardless of whether there is a subsidy or not.
ELECTIONS – No impact. None of my candidates ever win in Minnesota. I wish we only had in-person voting & voter ID.
FOREIGN POLICY – Foreign policy is always unpredictable. What is happening in the Middle East, Ukraine, and other hot spots right now is quite concerning, but I’m not sure it will matter who is elected President. A full-scale war would necessarily require the support of both parties. Besides, I’m not expecting they are going to call on me or my family members to fight. If they do, we’re done.
HOUSING / HOMELESSNESS – No impact to us. This policy area has gotten zero attention in the election.
SCIENCE – I wish the government wasn’t really involved in funding science as much as they are. That said, I love watching the rockets in Florida – I guess NASA is a science program.
TECHNOLOGY – I get concerned with government censorship & coercion against free speech. I’m hoping Musk relocates the Twitter servers to Mars, where they can’t stop him from letting us complain! 😉
In conclusion, when I look at the list of policy areas, I’m proud that we have done a good job insulating ourselves from bad government, which is what we have. We will watch the election returns tomorrow night with some good friends. Regardless of how things turn out, I’m sure we’ll be fine.
What political issues do you worry will impact you after tomorrow’s election? Did I miss anything? I will follow-up on this post at the end of the week. Hopefully, we’ll have a “winner” declared by then!
Image: Pixabay
MrFireStation 
We have made it, but need to think about other Americans who are not as fortunate or just starting out, such as our children and grandchildren.
Uncontrolled immigration is not a net economic benefit for the country. The 10 to 15 million immigrants that Bidumb allowed into our country has created excess competition for housing that has driven up the cost of entry level housing. The immigrants are consumers of taxpayer services instead of being taxpayers who pull their own weight. They also create excess competition for jobs driving down wages. There are a few employers who are gaming the system by hiring cheap to them employees. They are dumping the true cost of these employees on taxpayers.
Here is a story that illustrates this close to home in Worthington, MN.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/09/30/tim-walz-bragged-mass-immigration-overwhelming-small-minnesota-towns-schools-50-languages-beautiful-diversity/
My experience with SALT tax deductions is that they have always been effectively capped by the Alternative Minimum Tax which stripped out your SALT deductions.
Cackling Kamala wants to mess with Capital Gains Tax Rates. Especially egregious would be taxing unrealized Capital Gains. She has thrown around the figure of $10 Million net worth, which may sound like a lot. If this is not inflation adjusted to compensate for the real level of inflation, this will sneak up on many who think it will be taxing only the rich. Examples of this in action are the Federal Income Tax, the Alternative Minimum Tax, and taxability of Social Security that were all initially sold as making the rich pay their fair share.
Another Demonrat Administration means a continuation of the lawfare against political opponents that started under the Obumbler Administration. I am actually hopefully that a President Trump will be highly incentivized to take a wrecking ball to Washington, D.C.. Tucker Carlson started a recent Live Event by describing his transformation to MAGA and realizing that his neighbors in Washington, D.C. were robbing the country blind. They do not manufacture, invent or grow anything, yet eight out of the ten wealthiest communities are clustered around the swamp.
Trump has joined forces with RFK, Jr. and has spoken about charging him with cleaning up our food supply. This will have a major impact on your former employer, they will be forced to reformulate their US products to meet the same standards that they sell in Europe.
If the Demonrats run the table and control the Presidency, House and Senate, they will attempt to build a single party country by granting a mass amnesty to the illegals they have allowed to flood our country, add Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. as states to have four more Demonrat Senators and increase the number of justices in the Supreme Court so they can pack it. Single Party rule is where the craziness of The People’s Republic of California comes from.
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I know you like to talk politics, so I figured I would get an energetic response from you, Klaus! I don’t disagree with all of your thoughts, but on some I do. I do care & have an opinion on which direction the country goes, but the point of the post is that regardless of the election tomorrow, there will be little impact to me.
On immigration, I think the current border issues are a travesty. I support legal immigration and would like us to do better controlling border crossings. That said, I do believe that immigration – legal or illegal – is a net positive for the economy over the long term. Yes, initially illegal immigration comes at a cost. That cost is largely promoted by the Left. (In our state, Walz gives them free healthcare & college). Still, other than taxes or inflation, that doesn’t really impact me directly. I’m not competing with them for jobs or housing. Neither Trump or Harris is asking me to pay more in taxes. (Sales taxes in my state have gone up, but I’m increasingly spending a share of my money in FL).
Neither Presidential candidate will have the 60 votes needed in the Senate to impact capital gains rates. Harris can talk about rate changes, unrealized gains, and any other fanciful idea she wishes, but they won’t happen and it won’t impact me (or you). Going back to the “old” AMT structure stinks, but an analysis of it that I read on BipartisanPolicy.org suggested that in 2025, only 4% of taxpayers would be impacted. I don’t think my lifestyle will be impacted in any noticeable way.
Political “Lawfare” is very troubling. It’s certainly not new – and I’m glad that it is getting so much attention. It looks like the GOP is highly likely to gain a simple majority of the Senate tomorrow, so hopefully they can get some good judges to put on benches. Of course it was the GOP that ran the McCarthy-era lawfare against the left, so you never know. Again, no one is coming at me with lawfare myself, so I’m going to say it doesn’t affect me directly.
My former MegaCorp does a majority of their business in the USA, but they are considered pretty well-positioned with a portfolio of healthy foods and reformulate recipes all the time. They do business with governments of all stripes around the world and figure out how to make money to fund my pension. Additionally, based on the disclosures I’ve gotten in the mail, our pension is backed by a Federal guarantee. I don’t foresee any issues based on who is President, although they might offer up a lump-sum exit at some point (which I would welcome).
Living in Minnesota, I understand single-party rule, too. Do you really think Harris could be elected with a sweep tomorrow? I don’t see it happening. I don’t think Trump will get one either, although the chances are greater. Thankfully, regardless who is President – gridlock will continue to keep things in check. That will ensure little impact on my lifestyle, and likely yours right?
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Lump sum exit plans can be really interesting. My wife was given the opportunity to choose between a single payer annuity, an annuity with a smaller payout for her and half of the smaller amount for me her surviving spouse or a lump sum. At first she was worried about the lack of guarantee with the self-management. I worked up a spreadsheet analysis that showed her annuity paid around a 7% return with no inheritance for our children. We have been doing around 10%, so taking the lump sum pays better and creates a legacy.
For Mega – Corp, the reformation if it comes will be similar to rolling back the clock to the 60s before high fructose corn syrup and seed oil came on the scene. Probably a phase out of grains grown with Round-up and a change of coloring agents too.
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I’ve never analyzed what a lump sum payout might look like. Friends that have gotten the offers have generally taken them.
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Congrats! Looks like the GOP sweep. Now we’ll see what they do. I hope the GOP / Trump take a sharp knife to all the bureaucracy. Really drain the swamp and produce lasting change this time. Get to work on the unfulfilled promises of 2016.
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Yes, drain the swamp.
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I left the most important of all off my comment especially when I have son’s in their 20s. Keeping the US out of wars. This was cited by Brett Favre when he was making a rare campaign appearance on Trump’s behalf in Green Bay last week. This was also cited by ex-military and Demonrat House Representative Tulsa Gabbard and RFK Jr.
One of the biggest levers Trump pulled against Russia and Iran was backing ample and cheap US Oil and Gas production. This starved Russia, Iran and Venezuela of financial sustenance. He also kept Germany from becoming dependent on the Nordstream Pipeline for their natural gas. One of FJB’s first acts in office was cancelling the XL Pipeline in North America and allowing Nordstream.
Trump is also talking about brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia. There are a lot of people in both countries who are dying. Russian young men don’t want to be drafted to what has become their Vietnam. One of the wisest Presidential departing comments was made by Dwight Eisenhower, “Beware the military industrial complex.” George Washington’s parting comment is right out there as well, “Avoid foreign entanglements.”
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Agree – foreign policy is a big wild card and energy is a big potential lever. I think most would give Trump high marks for keeping us out of military action under his first watch. That said, these conflicts don’t involve the USA directly. In order to put me of my son at risk, both parties are going to need to agree – regardless of who wins the Presidency. Again, it just doesn’t impact me directly.
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We need to return to Congressional Approval of military actions.
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Absolutely. My brother wrote his masters thesis on the War Powers Act. Congress ceded too much power to the POTUS.
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Gordan Chang wrote the “Plan Red” about Communist China’s desire to destroy the USA. They are behind Fentanyl that is killing more young Americans every year than the Vietnam War during its entirety. They are also the developers who released and propagated the Corona Virus that killed many of our old and infirm people. They are not our friends.
However, China’s economy is very fragile. They have overbuilt homes to the point that they have housing for 3 billion people, but only have 1.4 billion people. Owning more than one home became a store of wealth that is now a bubble bursting. Their young people cannot get jobs that they have trained for. They are in debt worse than the US. According to a recent interview with Gordon Chang on OANN, Trump’s tariffs can destroy China economically. Companies are already moving production away from China. Bankrupting China would work about the same as it did with Reagan and the Soviet Union.
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Agree. China looked really powerful 10 years ago, but now they look increasingly desperate. They are starting to lose population, too. Some think they are in big trouble demographically. Not many folks want to emigrate to China either.
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