Who would have thought the Republicans would decisively clean-sweep the White House, Senate, and House in this week’s election? Certainly not the media pundits or the political pollsters.
Once again, the “experts” were wrong. Most voters clearly didn’t believe that Biden was “sharp as ever”, Harris was a “new path forward”, or Trump was “Hitler” – no matter how many times they told us that.
Still, some saw clearly that Trump was pulling off the greatest political comeback ever: the “crypto bros” wagering on sites like Polymarket.
They quite literally bet that Trump would be the first person to ever lose the Presidency and win it back 4 years later. Some placed bets two years ago. They favored him 65/35 for much of the month leading up to Election Day.
I was one of them. Although I didn’t vote for Trump or Harris myself (I’m a kooky third party libertarian voter), I did put a bet down on Trump to win the important swing state of Michigan. I had a buddy there who had some good reasoning on why it would happen.
In 5 minutes, with a VPN line through Singapore, my son helped me convert Etherium to USDC and use a QR code to bet $106.29 on Polymarket.
I wagered on Trump winning Michigan with a 39% probability. In old school terms, that’s about 2.5-to-1 odds. By midnight on Election Day, the polls were closed & ballots counted with a Trump +1.5 point margin. My payout is $257.25 – a 142% gain.
In a year when many polls were pretty far off, the betting markets were relatively accurate. I was on to these 4 years ago, but I think they have become even more predictive as more people come in. The more people are reluctant to answer traditional polls (or answer honestly), the better these will be as an alternative.
Additionally, if you are into gambling, you can also bet on sports, entertainment, business, and science. Some current props include if Taylor Swift will get engaged this year (24% odds), will Max Verstappen win the Las Vegas F1 race (31% odds), will TikTok be banned by next May (13% odds), or will November be declared the hottest ever (31% odds). If you have an interest, there is a prop bet for it!
How interested are you in online betting markets?
Image: Pixabay
MrFireStation 
have better things to do with my money and time.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You do you! 😃
LikeLike
I never gamble myself, but congratulations on finding what appeared to be a mispriced bet. That is the same business we are in, when investing in stocks. We are looking for stocks that are mispriced, which are paying a higher than normal dividend and yet have a good chance of surviving and thriving so that the dividends continue and the market price normalizes.
To us, investing is the equivalent of going out and betting against the para-mutual betting system. We look for a horse with one chance in two of winning, and that pays three to one. In other words, we’re looking for a mispriced gamble. That’s what investing is, and you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced.
Charlie Munger
LikeLiked by 1 person
Agree – Wall Street, Las Vegas, and Polymarket have a lot in common. I have a buddy who game me a tip on Michigan. He said there had been a lot of focus on “addressable low-propensity voters”, like sportsmen. They buy hunting & fishing licenses – so there is up-to-date address info for them. Statistically, they don’t vote often, but if you get them to vote – they’ll choose pro-2A candidates.
LikeLiked by 1 person
A young door knocker named Scott Pressler did the same with the Amish Community in PA. In the past they have not been politically active. The Federal Government has been truly to control their farming methods. Mr. Pressler got the Amish to register and vote.
LikeLike
I heard about that guy. There are a LOT of Amish people in PA. A lot have moved to southern MN, too.
LikeLike