I was ordering a beer at the Margaritaville pool the other day and commenting on the run of great, sunny, +80-degree days we are having in Central Florida. (Far different than back in Minnesota where it was -14 degrees this morning).

The waitress commented that her “off day” this week is Friday, and that “with my luck, it will probably rain that day.” (Perhaps she was right about “her luck” since it is supposed to rain for a few hours today.)

Still, why do we say “with my luck …” and then predict something bad will happen? Why do people relate with writer E.K. Means’ comment that, “if it wasn’t for bad luck, I wouldn’t have any luck at all”? Our newspaper columnist often quips, “if there is a 50/50 chance of something good or bad happening, there is a 90% certainty it will be the bad result, not the good one.”

Does anyone think of themselves as lucky? How does that impact our financial and investment decisions?

A couple Canadian researchers studied people’s beliefs in luck back in 1997. They concluded that most people (70%) of people believe in luck, with most (60%) considering themselves lucky. Those numbers seem to fight the thought that the only luck is bad luck. Perhaps it’s just funnier in conversation to make fun of our bad luck?

A UK professor, Richard Wiseman, who has studied attitudes toward luck, postulates that people who believe they are lucky will lean into risk more often. He believes that this tendency becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy in many aspects of our lives as it drives people to work harder or longer to “make their luck happen.” I guess that’s a good thing.

I’ve always considered myself pretty lucky on the whole. I sometimes say I lead a “charmed life” including my uncanny success coming across great parking places. When I say, “charmed”, I don’t mean that I’m special in anyway or benefit from superstitions. I just that we’ve beat the odds in many ways and things worked out for us. We’re aware that many others have significant, uncontrollable challenges put in their way.

I don’t think my belief that we’ve been particularly lucky has made me less risk adverse in investing or in financial decisions. I’ve always been a pretty cautious investor – even more so now that we are early retired. Once you reached FIRE (financially independent & retired early), I think it’s better to protect what you have than to stretch into risk for more.

His lucky do you think you are? Why is that? Has it influenced your investment risk tolerance?

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