Even before Trump “paused” his questionable trade policy yesterday, Wall Street analysts offered updated projections for where they thought the stock market would finish up the year.
The S&P 500 started the year at 5,869 and had dipped below 5,000 (-15%) after Trump’s 10% minimum tariff and demand for balancing trade deficits. Still, most investment banks were quite positive in their forecasts for where the market will end the year.
As you can see, the highest forecast was from Deutsche Bank with a +19% pick. JP Morgan was the lowest (-4%) and the only bank forecasting a negative number. The average of all banks was +4.8% growth.
At the beginning of the year, the consensus was in the +8-12% growth range, so I would say that Trump’s moves – and other factors like somewhat reduced exuberance behind EVs & AI – have trimmed a bit off the sails of the stock market.
As I have noted before, we are holding course with our portfolio in 2025. After two years of very strong equity growth, I would be happy for any positive number at the end of the year.
What is your prediction for how the S&P 500 will finish 2025?
Image: Pixabay
MrFireStation 
I don’t have a clue. Based upon the still current high PE ratio and that the S&P 500 is down approximately 10% YTD, my guess is -20% for 2025.
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I’m generally an optimist, but the higher tariffs on stuff from China could really create a mess for S&P 500 companies as long as they are in place.
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My low expectations have nothing to do with tariffs or China. Stocks are priced high right now, so I expect them to revert towards their mean value. Not a lot of room to go higher.
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I agree with that too.
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