A few readers / friends sent me this cheeky t-shirt image, celebrating the stock market’s quick bounce-back from the Trump tariffs. Folks thought I was too negative about Trump’s move to correct long-standing “trade imbalances” – even though my official investor position was to “stay the course”. Related: Stay The Course Still, I thought it was important to acknowledge that the S&P 500 has quickly … Continue reading Trump Tariff Bounceback
The stock market was relatively flat over the last week with investors still try to puzzle their way through the Trump/GOP approach to tariffs, taxes, debt, and new statements on inflation & interest rates from the Fed. Our neighborhood investor club members were as puzzled as anyone when we met for the last meeting of the Spring. Everyone had their own take on what was … Continue reading Crystal Ball Predictions: Investor Club Input
Even before Trump “paused” his questionable trade policy yesterday, Wall Street analysts offered updated projections for where they thought the stock market would finish up the year. The S&P 500 started the year at 5,869 and had dipped below 5,000 (-15%) after Trump’s 10% minimum tariff and demand for balancing trade deficits. Still, most investment banks were quite positive in their forecasts for where the … Continue reading Crystal Ball Predictions
Plenty of people are running scared after the bears trampled -10.5% out of Wall Street on Thursday & Friday. I’m not sure what will happen to the S&P 500 on Monday morning (futures are -2.5% as I write this on Sunday night), but I’m keeping the faith that some order will be restored over the next few weeks, months, and years. If you saved for … Continue reading Staying The Course …
Just a short, early end-of-the-week post today. I’m trying to make sense of the headlines coming out of Washington DC. I think it’s safe to say that they are more nonsense than common sense. It’s no surprise that the market is in a bit of a free-fall today. How do these make sense …. ? I don’t follow this … If we’re getting $7T in … Continue reading Stormy Fiscal Headlines
Our neighborhood in Florida has a weekly “Investment Club” that I went to this past Friday. There were about 15 people gathered when I got there – in the events ballroom of our clubhouse. We started by talking about our 2025 expectations for the stock market’s growth. After two years of incredible growth (+23% in 2024, +24% in 2023), most people were expecting growth in … Continue reading Investment Club
Just a quick post today to highlight what could be the biggest change for the finances of retired people in a generation … eliminating Federal income taxes on Social Security. After seemingly not mentioning it since the election, Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters yesterday that it is a key part of the budget negotiations that GOP leaders in the House, Senate, and White House … Continue reading No Tax on Social Security?
Everyone is a genius in a bull market, and we’ve had a nice run over the last 10 years. The S&P 500 has grown from 2000 to 6000 over that period of time for a healthy +11.6% growth rate. The last 10 years have been amazing: 2024: 23.3%, 2023: 24.2%, 2022: -19.4%, 2021: 26.9%, 2020: 16.3%, 2019: 28.9%, 2018: -6.2%, 2017: 19.4%, 2016: 9.5%, 2015: … Continue reading Bulls & Bears
It’s a historic day in America. The crazy 2024 presidential election is behind us. Now we’ll see what impact Trump returning to the Oval Office will have on the economy and our investments. Love him or hate him, Trump’s policies and priorities have had significant implications for the economy, taxes, and healthcare—three pillars of a secure retirement. With that in mind, here are five key … Continue reading Trump Inauguration
A friend of mine was surprised when I shared this table adjusting the return of 401k balances for inflation over the last 4 years. It shows that despite the relative strength in the stock market, real returns for 401k balances are DOWN about 9%. “That’s not right!” he said – “the S&P 500 is an an all-time high. It’s up almost 50% since the … Continue reading 401k Returns – Not As Good As You Think
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