The economy is either strong, or very weak, it seems. Like many things in America, it just depends on your political perspective.
According to Gallup, Republicans are +22 points positive about the economy, while Democrats are -80 points negative. If you go back to Biden’s time in office the viewpoints were switched almost perfectly. In Trump’s first term they were flipped again.
I consider myself a true independent, so I pay the most attention to the light dotted line (in the middle) that represents people like me who are frustrated with both parties. That line has stayed pretty consistently negative over the whole period.
There are certainly economic bright spots right now … investments are strong (+10% YTD S&P 500), for instance. Still, the job market looks odd, inflation is higher than I like it, and interest rates are inflated. I guess like other independents, I’d be tipped to the negative, overall.
That doesn’t mean that I’m changing anything in our retirement investment plan. Even if the economy is a little wobbly, I don’t see anything catastrophic that requires us to take a “defensive posture” with our budget or investments. “Stay the course” is usually a good track.
Which way do you view the economy right now?
Image: Pixabay; Chart: Gallup
MrFireStation 
Financially, my annual income which is one of the main numbers I track is growing well above inflation. However, I consider the S&P 500 runup to be mostly a function of the AI bubble, so I am focusing on investing in stocks other than the Magnificent Seven.
One indicator that I see driving around LA is that traffic seems to be lighter. California has had the double whammy of the blockages of the Strait of Hormuz and our Democrat Uniparty that has regulated oil refiners to the degree that two shut down over the past year and charge the highest gasoline taxes in the country by a lot. Gasoline has reached the price point where it is taking marginal drivers off the road. You ask these people how their economy is and they would surely answer that it’s going badly.
I see some positives for the United States economic picture. Bringing manufacturing back to the US, tackling illegal immigrants and the government services they consume and stopping the fraud will help our Federal Government balance their books.
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Unfortunately, I don’t see any manufacturing jobs actually coming back. In addition, Trump seems very little interested in actually combating fraud. Their big bloated budget bill last year included record (debt) spending.
I have been watching the California primary this weekend in the news. The odds are overwhelming that you’re getting a continued Uniparty. Sorry to see that.
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