I love watching rockets. I’ve been a space fan since I was a kid – watching the Apollo missions and the development of the Space Shuttles.
I frequently drive from our place in Celebration FL to the Space Coast to watch launches. It’s about an hour each way for only a few minutes of excitement. I was there in April for the Artemis II moonshot.
Still, I’m not going to be an an early retail investor in the SpaceX IPO that values the company at $1.7T. I don’t typically play individual stocks and this one seems pretty risky.
I saw this chart that showed the valuation of the company is equal to the entire aerospace industry.
I get that SpaceX is more than just rocketry. Its StarLink communications, xAI artificial intelligence, data centers, and X.com media all rolled into one offering. Still, at this valuation, it becomes the #7 most valuable company in the world.
I also saw this analysis below that shows that the value of big tech IPOs have a tendency to crash at some point in the first year after an IPO.
The column on the far right shows the point of their max drawdown (loss from IPO price) that was registered at some point in their first year. The average is -55%.
Even after a full 12 months (5th column), only 43% have stayed positive.
That being the case, I’ll let younger or riskier investors take their chances with SpaceX. At a certain point, it’s more important to protect what you have than to try to speculatively grow it. I’m at that point, for sure.
Still, I hope both SpaceX and their investors all make out well – and that will include us as they get added to the big indexes that we are a part of.
In addition, soon after the SpaceX IPO will be the AI dynamos OpenAI & Anthropic. Both of those companies have the potential to even eclipse this public offering in value. We’ll see!
Do you have interest in any of these mega-IPOs?
Image: Grok
MrFireStation 
I think I will avoid the -9% median return and stick with boring growing dividend stocks.
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I figured. I wonder how many of those companies on the list are now issuing dividends. Not many, if any, at this point.
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Agree with the not many. However, I am issuing a Be On the Look Out alert for high growth companies that are just starting to issue dividends. Often these types of companies are seen as has been stocks by growth investors. I bought Home Depot, Microsoft and Broadcom when they started paying dividends and they were paying around 4.5% in 2010.
Microsoft was seen as a has been tech company and they were switching from selling Non-Exclusive Perpetual Licensed Software that companies hosted themselves to SaaS. They have grown their dividends in the high teens ever since. Now, Microsoft’s Office 365 SaaS offering is a runaway success, and they keep expanding the footprint. The equivalents to several of the products listed on your study are included in Microsoft’s Office 365 including Teams which provides the virtual meeting capabilities of Zoom, Active Directory with Identity Manager that provides the capabilities of Okta, telephony which provides VOIP with a direct dial number for corporate laptops. MSFT has the added kicker of being seen as a player in the AI marketplace. Similar stories for Broadcom and Home Depot.
You can screen for Dividend Stocks that get both current income and growth.
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I received an allocation for Space X. I requested up to $50,000 worth prior to the pricing of the IPO. I received 17% of my request so I am in at the IPO with an investment of $8,550.
I recognize the question of “given that you were willing to invest up to $50,000, do you plan on increasing your position in the open market?” I might, but to do so I would need to liquidate some holdings triggering a tax liability.
I hold securities for a long time. I view Space X as a 20-50 year hold which might help to fund the retirements of my grandchildren. Given the technology and future, this is as close to a permanent hold as one can get. Yes, I recognize that Chrysler, GM, GE and Sears were viewed in similar fashion without the technology.
I have two buckets of investments. One of bonds and dividends which provide five times what I pull out annually. The other holds great companies some boring, some with great potential. I have a few which grew 20X in five years. Yes, I have sold off more than my initial investment in my 20 baggers.
Like Klaus, I also own boring Microsoft despite my frustration with Teams, I know the corporate environment loves Teams but despite the MS 365 application, I often have challenges with a Teams meeting. I am my own tech support, and personal computers came on the scene in my senior year of college. We are visiting grandchildren in Colorado next week and son-in-law (who works in communications, the interface between the ground satellite station and operating locations (NATO is involved and that is about all that he can tell me) will look at my laptop and with a quick tour around my keyboard correct all conflicts including I hope linking my calendar with my iPhone calendar. Yes, I know that I use inferior phone technology!
Great companies with rising dividends are among the wonders of the world
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