Everyone is a genius in a bull market, and we’ve had a nice run over the last 10 years. The S&P 500 has grown from 2000 to 6000 over that period of time for a healthy +11.6% growth rate. The last 10 years have been amazing: 2024: 23.3%, 2023: 24.2%, 2022: -19.4%, 2021: 26.9%, 2020: 16.3%, 2019: 28.9%, 2018: -6.2%, 2017: 19.4%, 2016: 9.5%, 2015: … Continue reading Bulls & Bears
I went deep down the Social Security benefit timing rabbit hole this week. I built a little spreadsheet to look at SSI lifetime benefit at different “start ages” and added in the value of taking SSI pre-age 67 and investing it. These are my currently projected benefits from the MySocialSecurity website. I assumed a conservative 3% investment return on the early dollars. You can see … Continue reading One More Look At Early SSI …
A friend of mine was surprised when I shared this table adjusting the return of 401k balances for inflation over the last 4 years. It shows that despite the relative strength in the stock market, real returns for 401k balances are DOWN about 9%. “That’s not right!” he said – “the S&P 500 is an an all-time high. It’s up almost 50% since the … Continue reading 401k Returns – Not As Good As You Think
I’ve been saying for about a year that the economy seems to be “wobbly”. It hasn’t been clear if the economy is going to improve (see: Bidenomics), or tip toward recession (see: Bidenflation). Increasingly, it seems like we are tipping the wrong way. This morning, the Dow Jones crashed 1,000+ points – compounding on losses last week. I will note that the Dow remains UP … Continue reading Wobbling The Wrong Way
I see a lot of headlines in the news lately touting how high the stock market has gone. It is true that the S&P 500 has reached a new Apex – up +19% YTD to almost 5,600. At the same time, few in the mainstream media are noting that the bond market has tumbled markedly in the last two years (down -16%). Compared with equities, … Continue reading A Tale of Two Markets
We’re sitting down with our financial planner on Monday for our annual portfolio checkup. The key issue we need to think through is the relative balance of our portfolio between safe/less safe investments and those which are liquid/illiquid. When we bought our condominium in Celebration FL in February, I was a bit concerned our portfolio would be getting a bit heavy in real estate. In … Continue reading Rebalancing Act
Wow. I cannot believe how high inflation has soared over the past few years. High inflation has been my biggest concern since we early retired. I’ve probably written 15 posts worrying about what may happen to our FIRE plans if high inflation came as a result of the economic Pol-idiots in Washington DC. A few favorites: Cut Those Prices In Half! IRS Changes Don’t Keep … Continue reading Who’s Afraid of Inflation?
File this under “Things I’m Thankful For, But Have No Control Over”. The S&P 500 is off to a blazing start in 2024. Q1 is ending, and the index is already up double-digits (10.1%). It’s the U.S. equity market’s best start since 2019! I know, a quarter isn’t much to be excited for, but the U.S. market has really been rocking for a full decade … Continue reading Two Different Worlds
We’re at Walt Disney World’s EPCOT Center this morning, enjoying the Spring Flower & Garden Festival. They do a great job colorfully bedazzling the parks this time of year. The beauty in the parks is belied by the nastiness of a proxy fight behind the financial scenes at the Walt Disney Company. An activist investor, Nelson Peltz, is trying for the 24th time to gain … Continue reading Proxy Fight Ambivalence
At a board meeting this week, we were lamenting the continued, but predictable, inflationary fiscal practices of the federal government. I jokingly commented that we need to write future contracts in cryptocurrency, to hedge against government mismanagement. It didn’t get much of a laugh, but I figured it was a great time for a crypto joke. Bitcoin is once again in record territory, fueled by … Continue reading Crypto Back In The News
